NOAA Winter Outlook: Warmer for Much of the United States
- Author: Joey Payne Oct 22, 2018,
Oct 22, 2018, 2:59
The outlook says El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing.
The forecasters published their predictions for US weather in December, January, and February on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website on Thursday, saying only the southeast USA will have a standard winter with temperatures and precipitation keeping in line with historic averages.
The NOAA said that the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
"Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur", the agency stated in its outlook.
NOAA's Winter Outlook indicates our region is looking at a 33% to 50% chance for warmer-than-normal conditions.
NWS Climate Prediction Center Map by NOAA
The Climate Prediction Center's outlook seems to at least indirectly contradict the one released by the 2019 Farmers' Almanac, an annual Lewiston-based publication which uses a mathematical and astronomical formula created in 1818 to come up with long-range forecasts.
Other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale.
El Nino is a fluctuation of temperature of surface layer water in the Equatorial Pacific ocean has a significant influence on climate.
- No part of the U.S.is favored to have below-average temperatures. The chances are highest in southeastern Georgia and much of northern and central Florida. The northern half stays drier while the southern half gets extra precipitation. States from the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Plains and into the Northeast are likely to have above-average temperatures, the NOAA reported.
The most severe (if at all so to speak this time) winter expects the Northern Rocky mountains, the OH valley and the region of the Great lakes. But in case you need some talking down, a new forecast from NOAA says that at the very least, it won't be a nightmare this year.
Last winter ranked among the warmest third in historical records, 1.8 degrees above normal averaged over the nation.